Modelling extreme rainfall events in Kigali city using generalized Pareto distribution

Extreme rain events have caused numerous issues and had a significant impact on agriculture, human activities, ecology, infrastructure, casualties. The theory of extreme values has been widely applied in precipitation modelling variety other fields. This paper employs the generalized Pareto distribution, which used to analyse climates, conjunction with peak over thresholds approach investigate exceedances. occurrence intense rainfall Kigali city causes severe damage properties, infrastructure damage, people injuries, loss life, various harmful consequences. Early detection aids development implementation strategies measures mitigate negative effects before it occurs. aim this research is estimate frequency magnitude Kigali. daily data from Airport station collected by Rwanda Meteorological Agency 1990 2019 were applied. results showed that as return periods increased, so did levels, implying intensity will increase future. model's goodness was tested, study suggests model non-negative shape parameter (ξ) be good. study's findings are extremely important for understanding these also serve tool decision-making policies aimed at mitigating such events.